35 incidence: can we even get out of lockdown?

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With the apparently rapid spread of a more contagious corona mutant in Germany, the target of 35 in the seven-day incidence is moving from the perspective of experts. Without additional measures, reaching this value would appear “unrealistic for the time being”, said Kai Nagel, head of the Department of Traffic System Planning and Traffic Telematics at the TU Berlin. His group models the infection process in Berlin, among other things, with anonymized cell phone data. According to Nagel, the results can be transferred to the situation nationwide.

The mutation B.1.1.7, which was first discovered in Great Britain before Christmas, is spreading, according to data from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) from last week, in Germany: within two weeks, the proportion increased in random samples from just under 6 to 22 percent. If you take into account the significantly increased likelihood of infection, according to the model, the situation is “significantly more critical than we previously predicted,” explained Nagel. “If the current measures are simply retained, we will then get a third wave according to the model; any kind of opening enlarges this wave. “

Nagel emphasized: “We can counter this by generally avoiding indoor contacts without protective measures.” In addition to schools, such contacts also include multi-person offices and mutual visits. Possible protective measures are masks, rapid tests, vaccinations and the relocation of events outside.

The models of the TU scientists also include key figures on the virus and aspects such as temperature and the leisure activities that depend on it. Most recently, no changes in people’s behavior could be seen in the mobility data, said Nagel – with the exception of the weekends, when more people were out and about when the weather was better. As long as these additional activities take place outdoors, “according to our models, they do not result in any relevant additional infections,” says Nagel.

dpa / lp


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