After another jump at the beginning of the new year to a new all-time high of $ 884.49, Tesla shares have recently returned to a somewhat calm position – investors seem to be waiting for the business figures for 2020 and the outlook for this year in the coming week. On Thursday, Tesla closed with a small plus at $ 846.64, which corresponds to a total market value of a good $ 800 billion. Because of the recent consolidation after the Tesla share price multiplied since the end of 2019, some technical observers fear that the stock could slide into a prolonged downtrend. But unlike at much lower levels, there are currently at least two analysts who trust it even more – one of them even mentions a price target of more than $ 1,000.
Tesla price target more than doubled
Colin Rusch from the Oppenheimer investment bank had already rated Tesla as an “outperform” since at least August 2018, so saw more potential for the share than for the overall market, reported the financial website Marketwatch this week. The assessment obviously turned out to be correct, but like many other analysts, Rusch soon had the problem that the actual price was well above the target of 486 dollars he had calculated. But now he has created a bit of distance for the time being: Over the next 12-18 months, Rusch Tesla predicts $ 1,036, more than any other analyst at a large stock exchange company and the first ever to exceed the $ 1,000 mark.
Tesla would then have roughly reached the next milestone in terms of market value, namely $ 1,000 billion or $ 1 trillion as only a handful of companies worldwide have so far. For this you have to trust Tesla a lot more than just the approximately 500,000 electric car sales (plus an expected 200 megawatts of installed photovoltaic capacity and possibly 2 gigawatt hours of stationary batteries) in the past year and even the possible doubling in 2021.
According to Rusch, one of the great strengths lies in the software area, for which completely different evaluation standards are applied than for cars: Optimists would bet that Tesla will lead the commercialization of technology for autonomous driving, he wrote according to excerpts from his study, which have been published on Twitter: To validate level 4 and 5 systems, i.e. almost and completely without human intervention, 6 billion miles (a good 9.5 billion kilometers) of test drives are required. This requires a large fleet – and Tesla has only had it so far and can therefore achieve the necessary data volume in the next six months.
Years ahead thanks to 1 million electric cars
The analyst writes that the electric car pioneer is “years” ahead of the competition. Because Tesla already has more than a million vehicles with the necessary technology on the streets. Only an unknown part of it is equipped with the FSD (Full Self-Driving) option, but according to Rusch that doesn’t detract from the data collection: In “shadow mode”, Teslas can only use the basic autopilot to learn rare rims -Cases and thus contribute to the optimization of the system. This is an “extraordinary advantage”.
According to Rusch, how far it really goes will be shown by how quickly Tesla’s announced expansion of the fundamentally revised FSD software to include driving in urban environments will succeed. It’s currently only in early beta testing in the US, but according to reports from the few drivers it actually gets better with each new version. CEO Elon Musk said at the beginning of January that he was confident that FSD would drive safer than a human this year. He ignored an offer to place a bet on it – but investors can accept it on the stock exchange.