On three continents and four locations at the same time, Tesla is currently creating more capacity for the production of its electric cars with expansions and new Gigafactorys. In China, a second building for the production of the Tesla Model Y is nearing completion, in Brandenburg, Germany, the first walls are already being built for the Gigafactory near Berlin. The newest Gigafactory location is in Texas and was announced by CEO Elon Musk just over a week ago – the ground is already being leveled there. And at least one new Model Y production line will be installed at the Tesla parent plant in Fremont.
Tesla doubles capacity
The Twitter user @ garyblack00 – a former high-ranking investment professional who is now closely watching Tesla – has compiled what this could mean in numbers. According to the latest quarterly report, Tesla was able to produce 400,000 Model 3 and Model Y and 90,000 Model S and Model X per year in Fremont at the end of June. The capacity of the China Gigafactory so far only for Tesla Model 3 was 200,000 per year. Black expects 100,000 Model 3 and Model Y in Fremont to be added by the end of the year, as announced by Tesla, and 200,000 Model Y in China. That would be an increase in Tesla capacity of 30 percent.
But it will go much further in big steps. For 2021, Black expects an annual capacity of 400,000 Tesla Model Y from the German Gigafactory. The factory is designed for this, but should start up in July 2021 approximately twice as fast as the Chinese factory before. The private finance professional expects 200,000 Tesla Model Y and 200,000 Cybertrucks per year for the new Gigafactory in Texas, also before the end of 2021. That would mean an annual capacity of almost 1.8 million Teslas per year, a good two and a half times as much as today.
With the rest of the auto industry decimated by recession and cutbacks, $ TSLA capacity will soar from 690K today to 1,790K over next 18 mos, creating $ 8.8B = $ 44 / share of new earnings power. 2023 EPS $ 50 / share seems a layup. Worth $ 3,000? $ 4,000? TSLA is way too cheap at $ 1,500. pic.twitter.com/KTk8eZaVGt
– Gary Black (@ garyblack00) July 30, 2020
On Twitter, the numbers were sometimes described as too optimistic. But even doubling electric car capacity in less than two years would be another significant increase for Tesla. And the fact that Tesla’s Gigafactory is getting bigger and bigger shows that this is the direction.
This can be clearly seen from a comparison of all Tesla production sites worldwide that the reddit user / brandude87 has put together. The smallest is by far the plant in Tilburg, where Teslas is finally assembled for Europe, followed by the Solar Gigafactory in the US state of New York. The Fremont plant and China’s currently the only other Tesla electric car factory are roughly the same size. The Giga Berlin under construction is similar in structure to the Chinese, but has larger buildings and more space around it.
Size similar in Nevada and Texas
For Tesla’s cordless gigafactory together with Panasonic in the US state of Nevada, it is much larger than the property in Grünheide, Germany. It even seems to have a little more space than the newest in Texas, which is, however, partly hilly and rocky. Tesla’s new property near Austin, on the other hand, seems almost completely usable; Although it is cut up by a motorway, it also has access to it on both sides.
Some had hoped that Tesla would start a tera factory instead of another gig. According to the quarterly report, the name of the giga in Texas will continue to be given for the time being. In turn, she got her last name from the state, although Tesla boss Musk spoke of Giga Berlin at the German factory and explained that from now on all locations should be labeled Giga plus the nearest metropolis. The GF2 in China became Giga Shanghai and GF4 Giga Berlin.
Is Tesla Terafactory Texas Coming?
A Twitter user therefore asked Musk to clarify whether he wanted to stay with the name Gigafactory Texas as in the Tesla quarterly report (which Brandenburg is also mentioned by the way, but unlike Berlin only once). There was no answer for the time being. One possible explanation: Texas had previously been considered a candidate for Tesla’s first Tera project, i.e. a factory in which batteries and accumulators are built or installed every terawatt hour. The new property at Austin should offer enough space for it – so CEO Musk may already have a name change in the catchy Tesla Terafactory Texas in mind.