The effective one Number of reproductions of the coronavirus infections is according to a model calculation published on Monday evening by the Agency for Health and Food security (AGES) has recently risen again. The estimated daily effective Number of reproductions was for Austria since April 4th less than one and for May 15th is again greater than one at 1.07.
An effective one Number of reproductions below the value of one indicates that the infections are on the decrease. According to the current state of knowledge, the increase that has now taken place is likely to be at least one COVID19 Cluster in one Mail distribution center in Lower Austria and Vienna to be attributed.
In some regions there are hardly any or no cases
In view of the significant drop in cases, this appears to be overly dramatic. In some federal states, there was not a single new corona infection for days. If a few new cases are found here, an “increase rate” only appears artificially “dramatic”. Also in Lower Austria and Vienna Reproduction rates of 1.3 and 1.15 (on May 15 each) sound worse than the number of people tested positive of just under or over 40 that day.
According to the experts, the interpretations must always be made in conjunction with the epidemiological curve. An approximation of the effective ones Number of reproductions an one means a constant number of new cases per day, but does not provide any information on the level at which the incidence of the Covid-19 cases is. In some federal states, the number of incidents (newly identified; note) is very small, which is why the actual fluctuations Number of reproductions should be interpreted with great caution.
Currently no estimates in four federal states
The AGES specialists, who work with statisticians from Graz University of Technology, appreciate that Number of reproductions with immediate effect from a minimum of twelve cases per federal state. For this reason, estimates are missing for some days compared to the previous publication. Therefore, such are currently for Salzburg, Vorarlberg, Burgenland and Carinthia not at all. For Upper Austria was calculated to be 0.8 Styria 0.7 as well as for Tyrol 0.85.