It was a liberation on many levels. The chances of success of the vaccine against the coronavirus developed by Biontech and Pfizer are also fueling the world’s stock exchanges. The Dax gained around five percent on Monday and can confirm this increase today. “The news was not to be expected”, explains Folker Hellmeyer from Solvecon asset management company in Bremen in an interview with NewsABC.net.
“Market participants assumed an effectiveness of the vaccine between 50 and 55 percent. 90 percent are therefore a real game changer, ”says Hellmeyer. In addition to pure medical help, a vaccine is also important news for the psychological level. There is now well-founded hope that the pandemic will be manageable in the foreseeable future.
But even purely in terms of the numbers, the news from Biontech and Pfizer brings an important change: Since the virus can apparently be contained earlier than expected and, according to the current data, more successfully than expected, a special situation arises in connection with the economic aid that has been initiated. “Overall, more measures were initiated than after the financial crisis, which now not only restores the general noise of the economy, but also provides additional impetus,” explains Hellmeyer.
Vaccine foreseeable: Previous corona losers wanted on the stock market
Commerzbank also expects the vaccination to boost the economy in the second half of 2021. “Gross domestic product should increase noticeably, especially in the fourth quarter of 2021, and will largely reach its pre-crisis level again towards the end of the year in Germany and many other countries,” writes chief economist Jörg Krämer in one current analysis.
The result is easy to see: Corona profiteers such as the US video conference service Zoom, the cook box supplier Hello Fresh or Delivery Hero are coming under pressure, while corona losers such as companies from the automotive, chemical or mechanical engineering industries are wanted. “We are seeing a clear sector shift, because in the coming months the cyclical companies will be exciting again”, says Hellmeyer.
In addition, many companies have recently held back with investments, which means that there is potential to catch up in this area. In this point, too, the focus is particularly on mechanical engineering.
Nasdaq has been losing since the prospect of a corona vaccine
But, while those companies are benefiting from the new situation on the stock market, there are currently also losers in this development with tech values. The US technology index Nasdaq is coming under pressure after only knowing the way up for the past few months. “After the strong performance, profit-taking should be primarily responsible for this,” explains Hellmeyer. He does not assume that investors’ interest in these values will disappear in the long term. “The basic orientation will remain, as will the trend towards digitization in general,” continued Hellmeyer.
Corona profiteers are suffering from the vaccine news, previous corona losers are being sought – the thought arises that the stock market has already turned its back on the virus. But Hellmeyer warns against too quick conclusions. “In a pandemic, things can turn out to be unpredictable,” he warns. Nevertheless, the trend is clearly visible in the first reaction: Investors are looking for stocks that will benefit in the post-crisis period.
The fact that the Dax can defend its price potential today after the steep rise on Monday is a positive sign. Nevertheless, the assessment remains difficult. “It is currently hard to make a forecast,” says Hellmeyer. But he pleads for a rethinking of the valuation standards for shares, after all, some analysts have recently emphasized how high the market is already valued.
“Valuation parameters of stocks should be reconsidered”
“A historical comparison of individual valuation figures is difficult today because in the past there were fixed-interest savings opportunities whose interest rates were higher than the inflation rate,” he explains. Today, however, savings books as well as daily and fixed-term accounts no longer bring attractive returns to savers, which is why it is becoming more and more interesting to invest money in stocks. While German government bonds currently have negative interest rates – investors get less money back at the end of the term than they invested – the current dividend yield on the Dax is around 2.8 percent, according to Hellmeyer.
“The attractiveness of stocks is much higher today than, for example, before the financial crisis. We have to rethink the parameters to the extent that a valuation that was considered too high 15 years ago is not justifiable today, ”said the asset manager.