It is difficult to say how representative such reports are, but after the start of sales for the locally produced Model Y in China, observers reported an enormous rush in several Tesla stores in the country. Rumor has it that the crossover electric car was ordered 90,000 times there in the first few days after the start of the New Year. A kind of confirmation of high sales at Model Y can be seen on the Tesla website for China since Wednesday: The delivery date for new orders slipped from January to the second quarter of 2021.
Already 3000 Tesla Model Y per week?
As the Twitter observer @ ray4tesla noted, the postponement apparently took place in two stages. At the beginning of the week, Tesla initially mentioned February as the expected delivery date, and since Wednesday it will be the second quarter of 2021. This suggests that the information is actually based on availability.
If this interpretation is correct, Tesla would have sold the entire production of the Model Y in the Gigafactory in China in the first quarter of 2021 in less than a week. And unlike the slower ramp-up of the Model 3 about a year ago, it already seems to be quite high: According to a study by Industrial Securities, total production in the China factory is now 8,000 electric cars per week, including 3,000 Model Ys, as well @ ray4tesla found out.
According to Guosen Securities, the cost of MIC Model Y is ¥237,930 while it currently sells for ¥339,900. That’s 30% gross margin. Over time, there is room for price to drop down to 260k while maintaining 25% gross margin. Elsewhere a report says LFP MY may debut in late 2021. pic.twitter.com/PkEoV6Vqpt
— Ray4Tesla⚡️🚘☀️🔋 (@ray4tesla) January 5, 2021
Projected, this amounts to a production of almost 40,000 Tesla Model Y in the current quarter, all of which have apparently already been sold. This does not correspond to the 90,000 pieces that are sometimes rumored, but is still a high number in such a short period of time. Market observers had already determined that Tesla is positioning its crossover below both conventional premium competitors from the West and local electric car alternatives with the price reduction at the start of China.
Tesla wants to increase China production significantly
However, the greater the demand in China, the less is left over for export to Europe. Tesla has not yet confirmed that it will come, but is firmly expected – exports of the Model 3 began last October. In the first quarter of 2021, given the many orders for the Model Y for Europe, there should be nothing more. But according to the study mentioned, Tesla is planning a total capacity of 12,000-13,000 electric cars in China by mid-2021 and 15,000 per week by the end of the year.
Much of this increase is likely to be attributable to Model Y. Sooner or later there should therefore be enough of them to meet at least part of the likely high demand in Europe. And sometime from mid-2021 production in the new Gigafactory in Grünheide near Berlin is to be added.