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Fuel prices, corona and CO2 tax: where are we going in the new year?

It was probably just a short break. after the Fuel prices Beginning of December 2021 again for the first time in months yielded slightly the return to the old upward rut followed. According to an ADAC weekly evaluation from December 15th the price climbed for a liter of Super E10 compared to the previous week by 1.4 cents to an average of 1.610 euros. One litre diesel cost on a nationwide average 1.524 euros – 0.8 cents more than in the previous week. They are noticeable large regional differences of up to nine cents per liter in the individual federal states, according to the analysts.

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Before that, fuel prices were also in the November 2021 further gone up. According to the consumer information service clever-tanken.de (belongs to the AUTO BILD group), both the Liters of Super E10 as well as liters of diesel opposite to October again three cents more expensive. Petrol cost on average 1.6858 euros, for diesel were 1.5653 euros due per liter. The last time there was a similarly high price level for refueling was nine years ago.

Higher oil price when supply is scarce

Looking at the same month last year, the extent of the price development became even clearer: “Whole 48 cents more than in November 2020 the liter cost Super E10 and 51 cents more a liter of diesel“, explained Steffen Bock, founder and managing director of clever-tanken.de. Four tank fillings of 60 liters of Super E10 cost 404.59 euros on average in November. That was around 7.37 euros more than in October and around 115.97 euros The same amount of diesel cost around 375.67 euros in November – around 6.86 euros more than in October and around 122.28 euros more than in November 2020. As is so often the case, the main reason for the development was the price of crude oil , which was mainly driven by the high demand and the continued shortage of supply. that the lower demand due to the corona virus in the pandemic year 2020 had led to low prices at petrol stations.

Expert expects sideways movement in fuel prices

And what’s next in the new year? One thing is certain: By increasing the CO2 tax On January 1, 2022, petrol will be 1.4 cents and diesel 1.5 cents more expensive per liter. In return, the Commuter flat rate from 30 to 35 cents per kilometer raised, but only from the 21st kilometer. Low-wage earners with an income below the basic tax allowance also receive one from the 21st kilometer Mobility bonus of 4.9 cents / km if the employee’s lump sum is exceeded with the travel expenses. Otherwise same one Forecast for the fuel price in 2022 the famous look into the crystal ball, so clever-tanken.de expert Steffen Bock: “A lot depends on Corona and the further development of the global economy. At the moment the oil price reports are very different. I expect one for the gasoline price Sideways to slight upward movement. Big jumps up or down are not in sight, “says Bock.

What role does the CO2 tax play in the fuel price?

In addition to the oil, the rising one plays CO2 price a role every year. According to a study by Prognos, the price of gasoline per liter could rise by 2030 through the rising CO2 tax alone up to 2.50 euros climb that Diesel tariff even to 2.64 eurosAccording to the latest calculations on behalf of the environmental organization Transport & Environment (T&E, Transport & Umwelt). Because with a pure one CO2 price-based market solution would it be necessary to have this on 450 euros / ton to raise.

How the rising price of CO2 affects the price of fuel

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Alternatively, other measures such as a Surcharge when buying a car with an internal combustion engine have a moderating effect on fuel prices. Thus, according to the calculations, the price increase could be on 1.90 euros for gasoline and 1.96 euros for diesel be limited. Buyers of cars with high CO2 emissions could finance the purchase premiums for e-cars with a surcharge, argues T&E. In addition to the rising CO2 price, the organization is also bringing up the discussion about the abolition of inexpensive company car taxation for combustion engines. In addition, she advocates a bonus-malus system when buying cars. The transport sector is given particular importance in combating climate change. According to the climate law, it will have to practically halve its emissions by 2030.

How is the fuel price made up?

A big part of the fuel price are taxes and expenses. The energy respectively Mineral oil tax makes 65.45 cents per liter for premium gasoline, 47.07 cents for diesel. In theory, diesel should always be just under 19 cents cheaper. However, because wholesale prices fluctuate, the reality at the petrol station often looks different. According to clever-tanken.de, the difference in September was an average of 0.1614 euros per liter. Then there is the value added tax of 19 percent on the sales price, currently just under 27 cents for Super E10 and around 25 cents for diesel.

Gas pump with super and diesel

The prices for gasoline and diesel are likely to remain at a high level for the time being.

In addition, the CO2 price – Without VAT 5 cents for Super E10 and a good 6 cents for diesel. The rest is divided into Price of crude oil and costs for further processing, transportation, gas stations as well as the Profit of the petroleum industry. However, the latter recently emphasized that their margins had not increased.

What will happen to petrol and diesel prices in the long term?

According to a study by DIW Econ (a subsidiary of the German Institute for Economic Research DIW) on behalf of Greenpeace, further measures would have to be taken in order to achieve the German climate targets the CO2 price will rise massively. This could make the liter Petrol or diesel up to 35 cents more expensive will. On the occasion of the UN climate conference in Glasgow, the Federal Environment Agency demanded that the CO2 price should be at least doubled from 2022 compared to the previous plan. The transport sector is the only area in Germany that has not reduced its greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. In return, the Federal Office wants social compensation. The ADAC criticized the proposals.

Will gasoline soon cost two euros per liter?

Without an additional price driver is a Petrol price of two euros rather unlikely. With a constant exchange rate of the dollar, the oil price would have to rise to well over 100 dollars, according to ADAC expert Jürgen Albrecht. The oil producers association Opec + has little interest in further increases in prices. In addition, this would make the funding method fracking more attractive, which would further slow down prices through an increase in supply.

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However, it cannot be ruled out that individual petrol stations charge two euros or more per liter of super at certain times. On the one hand, there are a few other, usually more expensive types such as Super Plus or premium fuels such as Aral Ultimate or Shell V-Power. On the other hand fuel prices fluctuate depending on Time, region and gas station partly clear. For sure is: Politicians want the internal combustion engine out Climate protection reasons bit by bit make it unattractive. And at the same time, electromobility is more attractive – with the innovation bonus, the environmental bonus and the wallbox subsidy, among other things.

How can drivers save on refueling?

In order not to burden their own account too much when refueling, drivers should to the pump at the right time of day drive. It is typically cheapest to refuel in the evening, and most expensive in the morning rush hour. In the border area between Poland and the Czech Republic, it may be worthwhile Drive to the neighboring country. And when traveling you definitely should Avoid motorway filling stations. (Further Tips for cheap refueling)

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