The crisis the world is currently in is having a major impact on the Dutch economy.
For example, the Central Planning Bureau predicts that gross domestic product (GDP) will shrink by 1.2 percent in 2020.
In fact, this is the best case, because in the worst situation, GDP shrinks by 7.7 percent this year. In 2012, a further 2.7 percent decrease was added. Moreover, the crisis will also have a major effect on unemployment in the Netherlands, which is likely to increase by about 4 percent or even more.
The report that the Central Planning Board recently published contained a total of four scenarios. In three of these scenarios, the economic crisis will be deeper than in the crisis of 2008/2009. Moreover, unemployment is therefore rising in all cases. In the worst case, this will even increase by 9.4 percent among the labor force. Before the crisis started in the Netherlands, CPB took into account an unemployment rate of only 3.2 percent of working Dutch people. This would be a historically low figure. Recently, these black figures have also brought some positive news, because Dutch government debt remains affordable. In the worst scenario, debt will reach 73.6 percent of GDP by the end of 2021.
When the CPB conducted an investigation into the consequences of the current crisis, the light scenario assumed that the restrictions imposed would last approximately three months. In this case, therefore, the economy would rebound in the third quarter, thus ensuring that damage is somewhat mitigated. Another positive effect of this is that unemployment will hardly rise, just like the budget deficit. The longer the restrictions persist, the worse the impact on the economy will be. If the measures last six months, the economy will shrink by at least 5 percent, while unemployment will rise to 5.3 percent in 2021.
The current policy of the Dutch government must ensure that redundancies of employees must be limited. In addition, the cabinet is also trying to limit the number of bankruptcies of companies. This will prevent a downward spiral, which will also limit some lasting economic damage. Nevertheless, the government can only partially absorb the blow. The longer the crisis continues, the greater the economic damage will be. This can also be seen in the fourth scenario, in which the CPB assumes restrictions that last one year. There are also additional problems from abroad and with the banks. In this case, unemployment will peak at 9.4 percent in 2021. The working Netherlands will therefore in any case be affected by the crisis we are currently experiencing. If you are also experiencing this then you can make a CV online. If you become unemployed, it is important to immediately look for a new job.
(This article is outside the editorial content of Metro)