Neuwirth refers here to Israeli data. The small country on the Mediterranean Sea has already passed its second lockdown, which began on September 18. “The target figure in Israel was less than 2,000 new infections per day, which corresponds to a 7-day incidence of 156.” At the corona traffic light, the professor reminds, a 7-day incidence of 100 is the trigger for a traffic light to switch on Been red. “So 2,000 new infections is not very ambitious. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel has set herself the goal of a 7-day incidence of 50, which would mean only 640 newly reported positive tests per day for Austria. “
Compared to Puls4, Neuwirth projected the data for Austria up to December 7th, i.e. up to the day on which the hard lockdown for schools and retailers is planned to end. “As it currently looks, we would still be around 2700 new infections per day on December 7th, which is significantly too high,” explains the expert. “If we want to reach the target values on December 7th, more would have to be done – or we can only hope that the lockdown effect will take place earlier.”
Israel has shown that – after an exponential increase and a lockdown – it takes about 18 days before an equally exponential decrease can be registered. In Austria there was initially a “soft” lockdown (gastro had to close) from the beginning of November, but a “hard” lockdown has been in effect since November 17th, schools and retailers are closed.