PBL: implementing climate plans for 2030 will be a challenge

That is what the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) says in a reflection on the coalition agreement. The Planning Bureau emphatically calls their comments a reflection, because the plans of the new government have not yet been calculated.

Holding back

The tightened climate target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55 percent by 2030 compared to 1990, borders ‘to the maximum that is practically achievable’, says Hans Mommaas, director of the PBL.

These are ‘historically high ambitions’, but the success of the plans depends on how quickly the money that is available is used, according to the PBL.

PBL is also cautious about achieving the target of reducing nitrogen emissions.

question marks

Some of the measures in the agreement are voluntary in nature. According to the Planning Bureau, this poses the risk that changes will get off the ground too slowly to see results as early as 2030. “The question is whether this ambition will be feasible before 2030, given the requirements it sets for implementation.”

The PBL also has questions about the feasibility of other parts of the coalition agreement. For example, the construction sector can no longer build in the short term due to the shortage of personnel and materials.

Residential building

There is a risk that extra money will end up in the construction sector, but that no more homes will be added, the PBL fears.

In addition, the money that the government invests can lead to land prices rising, the PBL believes.

Minister of Housing & Spatial Planning (VRO)

The PBL has some questions about the new Minister of Housing & Spatial Planning (VRO). After all, this minister does not have a portfolio, but will, among other things, direct the spatial policy. The new minister will also support municipalities and provinces in determining housing locations.

But the impact of more centralized control on the housing market depends on how the various powers are used. In the previous cabinet, the Minister for the Interior and Kingdom Relations (BZK) already had extensive legal powers, but not all of them were used, the PBL writes.

A separate minister is therefore not necessarily needed for more central management, and vice versa, a new minister does not by definition guarantee more central management, concludes the PBL.

In addition, the options of the new minister appear limited if the civil service is not expanded and a large part of the budget available for the housing market is allocated to other ministers, the Planning Bureau thinks.

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