Stacked deep? Tesla plans to sell 1 million electric cars this year, according to observers

The Tesla business figures for 2020 were outstanding on the one hand, and a disappointment on the other. The electric car and energy company was once again able to significantly increase sales, profits and deliveries despite the coronavirus pandemic. In contrast, however, the profit in the last quarter was significantly lower than analysts had previously calculated. In addition, when presenting the figures, Tesla looked unusually cautious into the future and did not mention a specific target for deliveries, but merely announced “an average of 50 percent per year over a period of several years”. For 2021, this average would mean 750,000 deliveries – but an observer now claims to have learned that Tesla is aiming for at least 1 million internally instead.

Exclusive info from private Tesla connoisseur

The information does not come from analysts or journalists, but from a private person. But that’s not necessarily unusual at Tesla, because the company has many staunch fans and shareholders who are intensively involved with it. CEO Elon Musk himself has already praised this and said that the insights of private investors are often much more profound than those of stock market professionals. In addition, the Twitter platform, which is also widely used by him, offers the opportunity to come directly to the public with new findings instead of using traditional media.

In any case, Sawyer Merritt, according to his profile, co-founder of a start-up for sustainable clothing and Tesla investor since 2015, writes almost exclusively about Musk’s company on Twitter and has now secured a good 22,000 followers. And on Tuesday he published a message that could move billions on the stock market if it proves correct: Tesla is aiming for at least 1 million electric car deliveries for the current year, Merritt wrote, citing a source who was informed.


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When asked by the Teslarati blog, Merritt confirmed that this source was a Tesla insider who was familiar with the sales strategy for this year. He had not previously revealed these details on Twitter – if they are correct, they make his information more credible. Of course, the planning at Tesla could still change, he added, but his message reflects the current status.

In any case, it is not implausible. In fact, stock market analysts already trust Tesla to be more than the theoretical target of 750,000 deliveries in 2021 and are expecting more than 800,000 electric cars. And in a subordinate clause in the cautious outlook from the end of January it says that more than 50 percent growth is expected for 2021. In the conference call after the figures for the past year were published, the prudent CFO Zachary Kirkhorn went even further: Tesla could even “significantly” surpass the 50 percent this year, he said.

Börse takes no notice of the news

1 million deliveries in 2021 would even mean an increase of 100 percent. But according to CEO Musk, Tesla sales have so far only been limited by the amount that can be produced, not by demand. And at the beginning of this year, the company almost had the necessary capacity, as the annual report for 2020 shows. This includes 100,000 Model S and Model X plus 500,000 Model 3 and Model Y from the main plant in Fremont, plus 450,000 Model 3 and Model Y from the new Gigafactory in China.

Tesla points out that this information is the maximum capacity without taking into account failures, supply chain and ramp-up. But in the course of this year, with the Gigafactorys near Berlin and Austin in the USA, two more plants with starting production should be added. Seen in this way, the Tesla million seems possible this year. On the stock exchange, the potentially hot exclusive news from Merritt was not noticeably noticed until Wednesday evening. At first it did not make it into the big financial services – and its author wrote on Twitter that Wall Street probably did not even know that it existed.


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