Study: All Germans who are ready to be vaccinated could be vaccinated by the end of July

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Experts from the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) believe that faster vaccination progress in Germany is possible. According to a current study by the Institute of the Hans Böckler Foundation, the vaccine promised for the coming weeks and months will be enough to provide all people in Germany who are ready to be vaccinated by the end of July. The “world” had reported on this. So far, the federal government had only promised citizens a vaccination offer until the end of September.

According to the study, the amount of vaccine doses available is the biggest inhibiting factor in vaccination distribution until April. After that, however, it plays a smaller role. The main thing is to speed up the vaccination process. Between the end of April and the end of June, an average of 0.8 percent of the total population would have to receive one vaccine dose per day. In principle, the authors consider these numbers to be feasible.

52.5 million full vaccinations possible by the end of July

The calculations are not based on the numbers of the entire population, but on the number of adults ready to be vaccinated in Germany. According to a survey to which the study refers, 75 percent of the population want to be vaccinated “definitely” or “probably” – which equates to around 52.5 million people who want to be vaccinated in around 70 million adults. Children are currently not allowed to be vaccinated with the existing vaccine.

In addition, the authors already include the vaccine from Johnson & Johnson in the calculations, for which the EU Medicines Agency EMA recently recommended approval. So far, the vaccine is the only one that only requires a single dose to be inoculated. With the 136.6 million vaccine doses available by the end of July, 77.6 million people could be fully vaccinated.

An average of 670,000 vaccinations per day are required from the end of April

In order to take care of the 52.5 million people who want to be vaccinated by the end of July, an increase from the current 200,000 vaccinations per day to 275,000 vaccinations would be necessary by the end of April. That would correspond to an inoculation of 85 percent of the available doses – a quota that has already been reached in other countries.

From the end of April to the end of June, the speed would then have to be increased drastically. An average of 670,000 doses should be inoculated here every day. This means that 0.8 percent of the total population would be vaccinated every day. Initially, you would probably have smaller daily numbers, but by the end of July they would have to be above the average. Given the current low vaccination rates on Sundays, daily maximums of 800,000 doses would be reached.

The study’s authors, Sebastian Dullien and Andrew Watt, consider these numbers ambitious but realistic. Because fast vaccination becomes easier as soon as the risk groups have been vaccinated and less attention has to be paid to prioritization. In addition, vaccination centers have significantly more capacities than are currently being exhausted. And there is also enormous potential for general practitioners and company doctors. “In principle, it should be feasible to ramp up the vaccinations and politicians should now focus on taking the necessary measures,” they write in the study.



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