It is a year to forget for international tourism – that much is certain. The new type of corona virus is still raging all over the world to make it easier for people to travel. Especially since many countries have largely closed their borders anyway, including Germany.
And yet there is at least a glimmer of hope for the European tourism industry. The borders should open again soon – if only gradually. From June 15, German tourists can officially travel to Austria and France again. Then Italy would be open again in principle. Spain plans to follow in early July. So is it going to be half as bad for the tourism industry?
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A graphic by the World Organization for Tourism, which has also found its way into an internal federal government paper, should not be very optimistic. The organization shows three scenarios. These relate exclusively to the international tourism industry, so expressly not to travelers in their own country. Even in the best scenario for the industry, international tourism will not recover until the end of the year.
Tourism: Africa could recover faster than Europe
With gradual border openings at the beginning of July, which is now very likely, the number of international guests would drop by almost 60 percent compared to the previous year.
If the openings were postponed to early August, the industry would have to expect a decline of 70 percent. And if the borders only opened again gradually at the beginning of December, it would be almost 80 percent. Then up to 120 million jobs would be in danger worldwide. The organization points out that it has had to adjust its scenarios down several times since the beginning of the year.
An expert survey by the organization also showed that Africa and the Middle East have the best chance of recovering from the Corona shock in 2020. The assessments of Europe and Asia are more mixed. The prognosis for North and South America, the current epicenter of the corona pandemic, is darkest. More than half of the experts assume that the tourism industry will not recover there this year.