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What scenarios after Trump’s challenges?

If the steps have almost no chance of changing the outcome of the ballot, the first recounts are announced. How long can this contestation of the results last? Could Joe Biden’s victory still be called into question? The point, eight days after the US election.

If the steps have almost no chance of changing the outcome of the ballot, the first recounts are announced. How long can this contestation of the results last? Could Joe Biden’s victory still be called into question? The point, eight days after the US election.

(AFP) – Since the announcement on Saturday of Joe Biden’s victory, Donald Trump has refused to recognize his defeat, supported by elected Republican officials. Legal action has been taken in at least five key states, alleging fraud or irregularities in the electoral process. How long will we wait for confirmation of results?

For now, the count is continuing in a few key states, including Pennsylvania, and a manual recount has just been announced in Georgia. But each state has a deadline by which election officials must have certified the results and validated the count of the votes obtained by each candidate: Georgia has until November 20, Pennsylvania until 23, Arizona until to 30.

“I do not believe that we will have to wait for each state to formally certify its results,” said John Fortier, election specialist at the Bipartisan Policy Center, an organization that wants to be a bridge between Democrats and Republicans. “I believe that at some point, probably in the next few days, with the progress of the count and perhaps the rejection of certain legal remedies, we will see that the differences are too important to hope for a reversal by legal actions”, he said. “I think that’s the way the issue will be resolved.”

December 14 is the real deadline, experts point out: the grand voters of each state must then meet to vote formally for one or the other of the candidates, a vote in principle dictated by the majority of the popular vote in this State. Even during the 2000 presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore, where the winner of the key state of Florida was contested for more than 30 days, this deadline had been met.

Rival lists of voters in contested states?

This is an “extremely unlikely” scenario, says Barry Burden, a specialist at the University of Wisconsin, “but the mere fact that some people talk about it is worrying (…) American democracy was thought to have reached a degree of maturity. where this kind of behavior would not occur ”. In this scenario, which he said “would contradict all standards and procedures for appointing a president,” the Republican-majority parliament of one or more states in which a Democratic victory is contested could designate large Republican voters – instead of validate a Democratic list reflecting the results of the popular vote.

The dispute would then continue before Congress, which will meet on January 6 to count the votes of the voters and formally choose the winner of the election. But several key states would have to submit rival lists to question Joe Biden’s victory, which experts interviewed by AFP consider impossible.

What if Donald Trump did not recognize defeat? – “It is likely that Donald Trump will never accept defeat,” said Barry Burden. “He continues to contest the results of the 2016 election, even though he won it (…) so there, it is likely that he will contest the rest of his life.” Joe Biden would not be less invested on January 20, 2021, but this would fuel doubt in the Republican camp and could “delegitimize” the victory of Joe Biden, says this expert.

“This may be the only goal of Donald Trump’s campaign team,” he said. John Fortier said to himself “absolutely certain that there will be a peaceful transition”, even if it will not be “the most friendly” or “the most fluid”. “It would be better if he admitted defeat, but if the transition is delayed it will not be the end of the world,” he said.


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