Even with the recently clearly decimated prices, there is still a lot of hope for the future in the Tesla share – for this year the company predicts at least 750,000 electric cars sold, which should hardly be enough to justify a market capitalization of around 575 billion dollars. But Tesla has been growing strongly for years and wants to continue to do so, with the auto business likely to make up the bulk of it for a few more years. Against this background, a fund manager active on Twitter has now compiled how many electric car sales he and other observers expect in the next ten years.
Tesla outlooks collected up to 2030
Snow Bull Capital is one of the smaller hedge fund providers in the US and, according to information on the website, invests in clean and modern technology. Its CEO Taylor Ogan is very active on Twitter and deals intensively with Tesla. Sometimes he has a difficult time doing this, because Ogan describes himself as a Tesla optimist, but does not accept all future plans from CEO Elon Musk. He recently expressed doubts about the short-term feasibility of autonomous driving and enough production of Tesla’s 4680 cells.
Apparently as a little finger exercise, Ogan now also presented the interesting overview of forecasts for the number of Tesla sales only in the next five years and then until 2030. Only a few of the large banks and brokers who deal with Tesla shares see this far in the future. But besides that, the CEO of Snow Bull himself and @ garyblack00, who is also very active on Twitter and who used to be a high-ranking asset manager, tried to predict the next ten years for Tesla. With @ jpr007 there is another former stock market professional who does not reveal his identity on Twitter.
And it turns out, perhaps unsurprisingly, that almost no one is as optimistic about the Tesla future as CEO Elon Musk himself. At the end of September 2020, he said that Tesla will probably have 20 million electric cars per year even before 2030. In Ogan’s overview, only @ jpr007 goes so far, and another private observer sees the 20 million as early as 2024. The second highest estimate comes from @ garyblack00 and is 10 million Teslas in 2030.
Fund almost more optimistic than CEO Musk
Snow Bull Capital sees Tesla only producing 5 million electric cars per year in 2030 – this alone will make it difficult to find enough batteries, Ogan recently predicted. Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse also expect Tesla 5 million in 2030, Piper Sandler with one of the highest price targets for Tesla stock anywhere is close to @ garyblack00’s 10 million. The investment company Ark-Invest, on the other hand, has at least drafted an optimistic scenario in which Tesla could even be well over Musk’s 20 million in 2030. However, it will end in 2024 – 7 million Tesla deliveries are to be achieved that year.